Real Modern Man

I found the podcasts on Social Proof to be very interesting. One example of social proof that JWS didn't mention is the effect of social proof on things like the stock market. I first heard about this phenomenon a few years back from the economist Marc Faber (iirc).

What Faber pointed out is that social proof tends to cause prices of stocks or commodities, or other investments,  to rise higher or fall further than they really should. With most commodities a lower price increases demand. For example, if the price of beef goes up, consumers will substitute something cheaper but similar, like chicken, lamb or pork. But with investments the opposite happens. As the price goes up, more people buy. Eventually the price reaches unsustainable, overvalued  levels, and the price crashes.

Faber used the example of people skating on a frozen pond. At first, no one skates on the pond because the ice may not be thick enough. Then some adventurous soul tries skating and nothing bad happens. More people join in, and the ice holds. As more start skating on the ice, more people decide it is safe EVEN THOUGH AS MORE WEIGHT IS ADDED TO THE ICE, IT BECOMES LESS SAFE!

This happens in the markets all the time. Investments fall out of fashion, and the price falls to bargain levels but still the investment is ignored because “everyone knows” it isnt a good investment. Example gold a few years back. Even central banks were selling off their gold reserves. Gold was around $200 U.S. Where is it now? $800 or something? There's an entire investment philosophy called “contrarianism” which takes the view that what most people know is wrong, and seeks to profit from it. Sometimes using social proof can be right. Sometimes it is disastrously wrong. Sometimes you can profit from the mistakes that others commit driven by social proof.

On a pickup-related note, I've heard from some PUAs that they “shape”* their women to brag about having had sex with the PUA. The PUA himself keeps his mouth shut and is discreet about the liason. The end result is that the woman's friends see that the PUA has something to offer, and they won't suffer any negative consequences, so they wind up fucking the PUA, without any effort expended on his part!! It's like he's getting referrals!

*Shaping is a term that Vin DiCarlo uses – using sexual rewards and cold  reads to modify a woman's behaviour.

The Beast said:

I found the podcasts on Social Proof to be very interesting. One example of social proof that JWS didn't mention is the effect of social proof on things like the stock market. I first heard about this phenomenon a few years back from the economist Marc Faber (iirc).

What Faber pointed out is that social proof tends to cause prices of stocks or commodities, or other investments,  to rise higher or fall further than they really should. With most commodities a lower price increases demand. For example, if the price of beef goes up, consumers will substitute something cheaper but similar, like chicken, lamb or pork. But with investments the opposite happens. As the price goes up, more people buy. Eventually the price reaches unsustainable, overvalued  levels, and the price crashes.

Faber used the example of people skating on a frozen pond. At first, no one skates on the pond because the ice may not be thick enough. Then some adventurous soul tries skating and nothing bad happens. More people join in, and the ice holds. As more start skating on the ice, more people decide it is safe EVEN THOUGH AS MORE WEIGHT IS ADDED TO THE ICE, IT BECOMES LESS SAFE!

This happens in the markets all the time. Investments fall out of fashion, and the price falls to bargain levels but still the investment is ignored because “everyone knows” it isnt a good investment. Example gold a few years back. Even central banks were selling off their gold reserves. Gold was around $200 U.S. Where is it now? $800 or something? There's an entire investment philosophy called “contrarianism” which takes the view that what most people know is wrong, and seeks to profit from it. Sometimes using social proof can be right. Sometimes it is disastrously wrong. Sometimes you can profit from the mistakes that others commit driven by social proof.

On a pickup-related note, I've heard from some PUAs that they “shape”* their women to brag about having had sex with the PUA. The PUA himself keeps his mouth shut and is discreet about the liason. The end result is that the woman's friends see that the PUA has something to offer, and they won't suffer any negative consequences, so they wind up fucking the PUA, without any effort expended on his part!! It's like he's getting referrals!

*Shaping is a term that Vin DiCarlo uses – using sexual rewards and cold  reads to modify a woman's behaviour.

Beast,

I have spent a lot of time studying the exact effects you mention about social proof and the markets. It's fascinating! Very true how financial investments reverse the normal laws of price v. demand. I intend to use some of your points on Social Proof Part III!

Cheers,

Joseph

I think it does.  I've seen a few mPUAs in action and I think it had a positive effect.

David said:

The Beast said:

On a pickup-related note, I've heard from some PUAs that they “shape”* their women to brag about having had sex with the PUA. The PUA himself keeps his mouth shut and is discreet about the liason. The end result is that the woman's friends see that the PUA has something to offer, and they won't suffer any negative consequences, so they wind up fucking the PUA, without any effort expended on his part!! It's like he's getting referrals!

*Shaping is a term that Vin DiCarlo uses – using sexual rewards and cold  reads to modify a woman's behaviour.

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Toecutter, in his ASF archive, writes extensively about how well discretion and social proof work, especially in very traditional cultures.   To the point, he writes about getting “passed around” a social circle including both married and single women.

I have seen this happen, personally, with a natural named J.  J would literally screw every willing woman in a circle of friends… including the fat, ugly ones.   He treated them all the same, and was unfailingly polite.  And never talked about it.   Didn't have to, everyone else talked for him.  My personal belief is that his lack of being judgmental was a key element in his ability to enjoy such a wide variety of women.

Interesting.  Do you think however, it would be incongruent to sleep with women you don't find attractive?  I'm not saying “J” did, but just in general with a group of female friends.  Entropy4 talks about this too.

Lol, I didn't even know there was a forum.

The Beast said:

I was watching the news about the global credit debacle. They showed footage of one of the CEOs of a failed bank giving testimony to Congress. One of them said something like “the worlds most respected” financial institutions were also doing it, so how could they be blamed for doing securitised mortgages too? More social proof.

The body language of these guys is *amazingly* bad.  If you can a clip of Spitzer from earlier in 2008, his body language is just appalling.  Compare these guys to Clinton “I did not have sex with that woman.”    It's like night and day.